What will the Federal Communications Commission decide regarding the proposed XM/Sirius merger? The hell if I know.

But it's fun to come up with predictions, especially if you live 3,000 miles away from Washington, D.C. and mostly get your information via the Internet. One thing is for sure, the path is open to a decision. The Department of Justice has ok'd the union. It's up to the FCC now.

Possibility #1: The FCC will reject the merger outright

This isn't likely, I suspect, but you never know. The FCC's 1997 Order did stipulate that one entity could not own all the spectrum on the Digital Audio Radio Satellite (DARS) band. And XM and Sirius have, after all, flagrantly ignored the agency's requirement that they create an interoperable receiver that could pick up both services. And boatloads of Congresspeople have told the FCC that they hate the idea, including lots of Republicans.

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